Storm time modeling of the African regional ionospheric total electron content using artificial neural networks

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a storm†time total electron content (TEC) model over the African sector for the first time. The storm criterion used was |Dst|≥50 nT and Kp ≥ 4. We have utilized Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 2000 to 2018 from about 252 receivers over the African continent and surroundings within spatial coverage of 40°S–40°N latitude and 25°W–60°Elongitude. To increase data coverage in areas devoid of ground†based instrumentation including oceans, we used the available radio occultation Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) TEC from 2008 to 2018. The model is based on artificial neural networks which are used to learn the relationship between TEC and the corresponding physical/geophysical input parameters representing factors which influence ionospheric variability. An important result from this effort was the inclusion of the time history of the geomagnetic activity indicators (dKp/dt and dDst/dt) which improved TEC modeling by about 5% and 12% in middle and low latitudes, respectively. Overall, the model performs comparatively well with, and sometimes better than, the earlier single station modeling efforts even during quiet conditions. Given that this is a storm†time model, this result is encouraging since it is challenging to model ionospheric parameters during geomagnetically disturbed conditions. Statistically, the average root†mean†square error (RMSE) between modeled and GPS TEC is 5.5 TECU (percentage error¼30.3%) and5.0 TECU (percentage error¼30.4%) for the Southern and Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes respectively compared to 7.5 TECU (percentage error¼22.0%) in low latitudes.